Just two months prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. After Rogers swept in his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The team continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six games, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains a particularly tough question to answer. History, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side that have strung together 10 in a row, they appear weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with two precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and again versus United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
A reversion to average may well be the most significant challenge they have to face in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the player he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
